JAPAN TODAY NEWS WEBSITE COLUMNS 7-9
By Arudou Debito/Dave Aldwinckle
Published March-May 2001
FIX YOUR MORTGAGE RATES NOW
By Arudou Debito et al
Column Seven for Japan Today
People settling here permanently eventually consider the purchase of a lifetime:
a home mortgage. Japan (unlike some other Asian countries) allows foreigners to buy
land, and these past years have been particularly good for homeowners. Notwithstanding
the high-priced hoyah that passes for construction, financing is very cheap. Several
years of ultra-low interest rate policies have given us mortgage rates of two to
three percent--by far the lowest in the OECD.
However, this column comes as a warning: cheap money will not last. I advise readers
with or contemplating mortgages to convert to fixed rate now for the full period
of the loan.
Why has Japan maintained the lowest interest rates in modern history? Primarily for
two reasons.
First, Japan's corporate sector is glaringly inefficient (to name but two industries:
food preparation and construction, Japan's biggest employers), and its drag on the
Japanese economy became clear last decade. The media prepared the public for the
death of lifetime employment and made "risutora" (restructuring) a buzzword.
However, as Japan's historically (and artificially) low employment rate is a source
of international pride, it was deemed necessary to avoid severe marketplace shocks
and widespread bankruptcies. To this end, lowering interest rates (complemented by
import barriers and funny accounting practices) provided a buffer of cheap credit
and alleviated debt servicing obligations. Unfortunately, during this grace period
producers recouped losses through pressure on distribution middlemen and gradual
consumer price hikes. Thus a slow interest rate reduction enabled Japan's inefficients
to avoid any sudden or major changes.
The second reason lies in central government planning. Following LDP Bubble-Headed
Logic, ill-conceived public works projects, such as perpetual construction on countryside
roads, bridges, riverbeds, beaches, and empty buildings, have swelled public debt.
Politicans and bureaucrats (egged on, to be sure, by a US Government mistakenly thinking
this would spur demand for imports) used public monies for one stimulus package after
another, confusing the temporary few tenths of a percent rise in GDP with real spin-offable
growth. Aside from the nasty externality of environmental destruction, throwing money
around further encouraged corruption and financial alcoholism in the construction
industry, and "crowded out" much private-sector initiative.
Result: A mighty mess. Now Japan has more debt than ever before--approximately 130%
of GDP. However, further lowering the cost of debt servicing is no longer an option.
Interest rates cannot go lower. The discount rate is zero again,. Ten-year Japan
Government Bonds are 1.35%. The point is that instead of ameliorating the pain of
restructuring, these policies of half-measures merely aggravated it into unsustainability.
Events in recent months have shown change is nigh.
For example, Japanese insurance companies (one of the biggest personal investment
coffers in Japan) are in serious trouble. A decade of low rates will not sate the
guaranteed returns (of three or so percent, fixed at the time of contract) of currently-maturing
policies. Making up the shortfall by, say, selling off capital investments (such
as land) will not work, since they have dropped in value by as much as half. Consequently,
some famous names (Chiyoda Seimei, Tokyo Seimei) have gone bankrupt, showing the
market that insurers, unlike banks, cannot rely on government bailout. Hence there
is immense pressure to save this industry by raising interest rates.
The bigger reason is gaiatsu, for the world financial community has woken up to the
hokum. Japan is now seen as threatening world markets, with The Bank of Japan lambasted
for irresponsibility at February's G7 summit. Moody's downgraded Japan's government
bond rating *as a nation* to Aa1 (most of the OECD has an "Aaa" rating).
The "Japan Premium" for risk on loans to Japanese financial institutions
is now an unthinkable full percent. This is no secret: Asahi Shinbun (Feb 26) ran
the cover headline, "Japan drops from developed country (senshinkoku) status".
So without a course change, Japan will find it difficult or expensive to raise money
overseas, further increasing the chances of corporate default.
But I am telling you this now because the flashpoint is imminent. It is March and
the end of the financial year. Japan has an annual event of lunacy where it uses
public monies to rig the stock market. Building share ramps on the Nikkei not only
benefits the insiders and political parties, but also the listed companies, which
can close their books with healthier balance sheets. But every April's readjustment
means our taxes disappear and national wealth is destroyed. Fortunately, this year's
plans by Finance Minister Miyazawa (an octogenarian who won't be around to see the
ruins) to use pension funds were aborted. Still, he said last month that to keep
revenues in balance, our consumption taxes will "unavoidably" (fukahi)
have to rise from five to over ten percent, further stifling any hopes for a demand-side-led
recovery.
Things must change. This is why I stress to readers out there, fellow people just
trying to make an honest crust, that the only way for interest rates to move is to
go up. And they must go up, eventually if not sooner. It is a mathematical certainty.
While things are still cheap, I encourage you to get all of your housing loans on
a fixed rate basis for the duration. This may mean a hike of a percent or so, but
when rates jump soon enough to five percent or more, you will save in the long run.
I will end this column with a caveat. I am not a professional economist. I am a researcher
whose comments and opinions are his own and are not necessarily representative of
those at Japan Today. However, much of this report's information and conclusions
comes a highly-successful financial analyst, for whom I am ghost-writing. My advice
of course is to be taken at your own risk.
Arudou Debito
Sapporo
March 19, 2001
IN DEFENSE OF "KOKO GA HEN"
By Arudou Debito
Column Eight for Japan Today
On Thursday nights is the fourth season of a groundbreaking and controversial Japanese
TV show. You know what I mean--the one with screaming gaijin pontificating on points
political and cultural: "Koko Ga Hen Da Yo, Nihonjin" ("This is strange,
you Japanese"). You either love it or hate it, but you can't forget it, even
if you've tuned in for only one debate and watched it crash and burn.
As an avid viewer and onetime guest on the show (February 28, 2001, teletext here
[LINK: http://www.debito.org/KokoGaHen1.html ] ), I
would like to comment on its merits and demerits, and suggest a possible improvement.
KOKO GA HEN
I acknowledge the show's weak points. One is its circus atmosphere. Particularly
in its early days, the foreigners would get riled up, the debate degenerate into
a random shouting match, and a buzzer would sound with a "gaikokujin ga funsouchuu"
(fighting foreigners' interlude) on the screen. One factor in this is perennial panelist
Terry Itou playing agent provocateur, bellowing "shut up and go home" in
the heat of battle (he is one of the show's producers, so pulling chains might be
part of the plan).
There has been some format tweaking over the years (such as avoiding the word "gaijin"
in the subtitles, as most broadcasters now rate it a discriminatory word). But irritations
remain: the constant subtitling of foreigners only, the inconclusiveness of some
debates, the glaring ignorance of some of the panelists on both sides, and just the
general "us-and-them" unruliness that generates more heat than light.
And truly discoloring things is a Japanese attitude towards social science--seeing
people as flags rather than individuals, thus conflating nationality with personality.
Fortunately, there has been some development of panelists as individuals (even if
they are the blithering Mr Zomahoun), and some of the episodes (such as the end-year
specials) have been just good clean fun. Hence, the show's circusness has mellowed
into a carnival, and therein lies its strengths.
KOKO GA II
I watch the show because of its energy. It is a rare debate which does not take off,
and sentiments I would love to raise in public do get said. Even if points get blunted
by overpluralism or the caveat of "those thoughts are unJapanese, therefore
ignorable", the mere mention of the unmentionable does get people thinking.
Also, Koko Ga Hen raises topics few will touch.
One episode talked about bullying in school, and somehow got on the show two very
brave parents whose children committed suicide. After one parent read his son's suicide
note, a foreign panelist said, "Not once in the note did he write, 'I love you,
Daddy'. So maybe part of the problem was you as a father." Once the shock of
that statement subsided, I realized that it was an unignorable possibility--one that
only this show would air.
Other episodes, such as bloated public works, teacher treatment of students, obesity,
and ugliness, unhinged the Japanese panelists more than the foreign, showing just
well the producers can touch anyone's sensitive spots.
Some episodes even investigated situational approaches in different cultures. My
favorite is where a daughter brought home her boyfriend and started being affectionate
in front of her father--enacted in France, Brazil, and Kenya. The reactions were
priceless (I would have brought out a baseball bat), and for once there was redolence
of decent social science.
Yes, the show has its overargumentative grumps, taking things overseriously and becoming
deadweight. But they are counterbalanced by many others equipped with a quip or a
snipe. Most, even Terry Itou, have the constructive attitude of "we're all friends
in the end".
Finally, only host Beat Takashi could keep it all under control--with an intelligent
comment here, a "let's drop it, already" there, and the appropriate foil
to deflate tension when necessary.
KOKO GA ADOBAISU
Still, the show is still about what most TV shows anywhere are about: entertainment.
It begs you to keep watching, but also resorts to cheap tactics to keep it interesting.
When I first contacted the show about taking up the exclusionary onsen issue in 1999,
producers said, "Not enough people would take the onsen's side. We need more
polarity or it won't be watchable."
Then in 2001, when we took the onsens to court [LINK: http://www.debito.org/otarulawsuit.html
], the show called us because a lawsuit riles the nonlitigious. However, when
neither the onsen owners nor Otaru City would appear in Tokyo for the studio debate,
producers raised the possibility of cancellation. Fortunately, that didn't happen
because foreign panelists were found in advance as counterfoils. It predictably led
to a heated studio argument.
All of this I can accept, since I do not feel threatened by pluralism. However, when
the debate was finally edited for broadcast, the bits of the debate getting significant
airtime were the disingenuous critics ("What--is your bath broken at home?"
etc.) --and our counterarguments to them were almost all cut, leaving the debate
in inconclusive limbo.
I advise the show to realize just how important it is to Japan's future, and avoid
sacrificing potential balance merely for the sake of entertainment.
KOKO GA POINTO
I encourage anyone with time on Thursday nights to watch the show. Koko Ga Hen is,
like it or not, interesting and highly watchable. I will go so far as to say it is
revolutionary. It shows pluralism from people of radically different cultures and
views, speaking Japanese in their own words, expressions, and accents--not bleached
by interlocutors or translators.
Even with its shortcomings, I believe that in the long run, Koko Ga Hen will help
soften Japan up for greater multiculturalism and tolerance in future.
Arudou Debito
Sapporo
April 19, 2001
NORTHERN ONSENS ADJUST EXCLUSIONARY STRATEGIES
By Arudou Debito
Column Nine for Japan Today
I have been asked for an update on the exclusionary bathhouse situation, so here
goes:
As you know, I am one plaintiff in a lawsuit (LINK "lawsuit" TO http://www.debito.org/otarulawsuit.html)
against Yunohana Onsen (for racial discrimination), and Otaru City (for letting it
happen). However, the problem is neither confined to Otaru, nor to onsens.
Thanks to the efforts of human rights organizations and the mass media (LINK "mass
media" TO http://www.debito.org/photosubstantiation.html#WAKKANAI),
it is well-known that other Hokkaido port towns are restricting foreigners' entry.
Wakkanai, Japan's northernmost city with a huge Russian presence (even the road signs
are in Cyrillic!), has a public bath, "Yuransen", with a "gaijin buro".
Separate facilities, separate entrances, even separate water for foreigners. Separate
but not equal: the Japanese side costs 360 yen while the much smaller foreign side
costs 2500 yen.
Further down the Okhotsk Sea coast is Monbetsu City, where for several years signs
(in Cyrillic only) proclaiming "JAPANESE ONLY STORE" have graced bars,
restaurants, and even the onsen annex at the Monbetsu Prince Hotel. Despite demands
from the Ministry of Justice, the local Restaurateurs' Association (which marketed,
mass-produced, and sold the signs to half its 200 members) refuses to force clients
to take them down.
This is why during Golden Week, I took another road trip north with fellow plaintiffs
Olaf Karthaus and Ken Sutherland to see if things have changed. Would my newfound
Japanese citizenship make any difference?
WAKKANAI "YURANSEN", MAY 3, 2001
It would. It took all of three seconds for the lady at the counter to recognize us.
"Ah, it's Arudou-san. Go in." Blinking at suddenly how easy it was, I asked
why. Manager Mr Ohshima remembered me from last year's three-hour chat and our appearance
on Koko Ga Hen. (LINK "Koko Ga Hen" TO http://www.debito.org/KokoGaHen1.html)
He said:
"I see you're a Japanese. Fine. Now you can explain the rules to your friends."
I said that we were all essentially the same in terms of Japan tenure and acculturation,
and I didn't see how my passport made me any more qualified as a guide.
"Doesn't matter. You're a Japanese. All of you can go in."
This was a surprise. Yuransen had always barring all foreigners even if accompanied
by Japanese. Maybe the presence of a Hokkaido Shinbun reporter and two TV camera
crews tilted the balance in our favor a bit.
Next, I checked out other Wakkanai excluders, such as a sports shop and a barber.
Both indicated that their policies had changed. Foreigners would not be excluded
unless they individually bulled their china shop. Progress.
MONBETSU MAY 4, 2001
Our reception down south was more interesting. Ken and Olaf cycled in 6-degree temperatures
to the Monbetsu Prince Hotel, where their facility for day-bathers, "Bijin no
Yu", offered the only natural onsen in this windswept town. And the only exclusionary
bathhouse sign.
The duo, initially refused entry, were let in after speaking Japanese. The management
refused, however, to discuss this problematic treatment any further, much to Olaf's
consternation.
When I went in separately about an hour later, reporters in tow and cameras waiting
outside, "Bijin no Yu" freaked out--saying I could only enter if accompanied
by a Japanese. I showed my passport and said I would accompany myself. This was unacceptable
to them, so I exited to report to the TV networks.
Suddenly, a Mr Hayashi (who had denied being the manager) revealed himself, apologized,
and suggested we talk. After two hours of frank exchanges we reached a stage of enlightenment
(Mr Hayashi: "Hmmm, maybe banning all foreigners without seeing if they speak
Japanese is kinda rude"), and I was allowed in to warm my bones.
That evening, I went around to a number of bars in the Hamanasu Doori party district.
Despite entering signposted stores by myself (i.e.with no visible reporters to discombobulate
things), not one place excluded me. They did, however, make it clear that I was acceptable
because I speak Japanese.
A three-hour talk over beers with one of the mama-sans was friendly but not all that
fruitful. She understood the system wasn't nice, but she didn't want Russians dropping
by. She hadn't had any trouble with them herself, but she'd heard the rumors... She
had no intention of taking her sign down.
CONCLUSION?
Up to now, this has been more report than column. Let's remedy that with some comment:
In Wakkanai and Monbetsu, one could argue there has been progress. Foreign exclusions
are no longer blanket. Individual factors, such as Japanese language level, are being
taken into account. We were, after all, refused nowhere.
However, let's acknowledge the caveats. A common problem of sociological surveys
is that the very presence of the surveyer influences the sample. Especially in our
case. I was soon recognized by name or face. If anything, I am the lawyer's kid their
dog should not bite. Even when we were sufficiently undercover, a camera crew or
reporter extending meishi soon tipped them off.
Moreover, how indicative is our case? How many palefaced Japanese speakers of Japanese
do you know? It is difficult to anticipate how the reception might have been if I
were a mum JET or with fur-hatted friends.
Still, this was unavoidable. Sending in our place an unconnected "fall guy"
would have been frowned upon, as 1) the respectable press dislikes entrapment, especially
if the reporters are local, 2) it would look "insincere", like we were
playing a game, which is the kiss of death for any social movement, and 3) the Japanese
public has a very ambiguous view of the procedures and merits of Civil Disobedience.
It seems that protests with the Western cachet of the Sixties, such as picketing,
sit-ins, and getting arrested (Greenpeace recently learned that lesson) smack in
Japan of sound-truck tactics. Awareness-raising or demanding changes cannot ever
be seen as threatening or redolent of mob rule. Thus it had to be us--precisely because
people know of us in terms of character and demands--investigating. Or else efforts
might be ignored or misconstrued.
The point is that the exclusion of foreign-looking peoples here has changed shape
like a mutating virus. Not one of the abovementioned signposters said they would
take down their signs--and for the same old canard. Even if Japanese language gets
you in, shopkeeps are still confusing comprehension with compliance.
Stress it again: The problem here is not one of culture or language. It is of individual
intent. Even if raised by wolves, a person may comply if the rules are understood.
Although an improvement on the past, the present situation of exclusionary signs
with ambiguous loopholes only further invites confusion.
Clearly it is time for administrations local, regional, and national to get involved.
Even in laissez-faire economics, state intervention is justified in cases of market
breakdown. Same for communication breakdown. With ghost stories of "Russians
running rampant" fueling mass-produced vigilanteism, it is time for the authorities
to do the job we pay taxes for: Provide adequate social services and legal protections
for all contributors to society.
In other words, make the laws and rules clear (in whatever languages necessary) and
enforce them. It really can be that simple.
Arudou Debito
Sapporo
May 11, 2001
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Copyright 2001-2002, Arudou Debito/Dave Aldwinckle, Sapporo, Japan