Debito’s Shingetsu News Agency col 73, “Revolution is Due in America” (March 1, 2026). Democracies happen because of a Middle Class, but you have to keep it fed and watered. America is no longer doing that.
Conclusion: Despite its 250th anniversary, American democracy has always been a bit creaky, with norms instead of laws that a chief executive could exploit. Countries that used the American model for their Nation-State wound up with autocratic executives. America didn’t because it got lucky. And because of that it never learned the outcomes of populism like France did. “It couldn’t happen here” has always been America’s blind spot.
But it IS happening here. America is experiencing crisis after crisis, and I predicted in an earlier column that there will be blood before this phase passes. ICE has already drawn blood without consequence. As in days of yore, the President and his henchman have a king’s immunity from accountability.
So where is the breaking point? Time for another prediction:
A draft executive order made public a few days ago dictates that Trump will declare a national emergency to take control of the 2026 Midterm Elections (for example, feds seizing ballot boxes and counting the votes themselves). This despite the administration of American elections being constitutionally delegated to the states.
I predict the breaking point will be when state and federal forces skirmish.
Already California’s Middle Class pays by far the most taxes to the federal government and gets the least back. This is basically true of 19 other mostly left-leaning states. Proposals have been floated to just not pay the feds—called “soft-secession”—and do better things with the $800 billion California would save. And that’s where the Democratic-leaning “blue states” are headed. Why should they pay the federal government to suppress them?
This is how the Middle Class is fighting back. As, historically, it always does when it is over-taxed and feeling like it’s not getting anything back.
Democracy exists for a reason. Compared to all the other governing systems, it is actually the best way to allocate resources over time. Let’s see if people in democracies can learn from history and change course.
But I’m not sure that’s going to happen in America. Trump has the most personal power of any president in American history, and he rules with complete historical incuriosity. His toadies only study historical examples of how to advance their power. They don’t study the backlash because they are so cocksure they can suppress it.
But there will be backlash—because the Middle Class aren’t powerless peasants. So, sadly, there will be more blood. Where it all ends up remains uncertain, but the conclusion of my lifelong learning is that I don’t think the American Nation-State can survive in its present form. Revolution is due.